Live since November 2024, verified on Wikifolio.de. Backtested across 10 years including three bear markets. Nothing hidden — including the down months.
| Metric | Monthly Strategy | Weekly Strategy | Nasdaq-100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return (2015–2024) | +1,350.5% | +1,340.8% | +396–415% |
| Avg. annual return (CAGR) | +30.6% p.a. | +30.6% p.a. | +17.4–17.8% p.a. |
| Best single year | +170.2% (2020) | +206.2% (2020) | +47.6% (2020) |
| Worst single year | -17.3% (2018) | -22.0% (2021) | -33.0% (2022) |
| Max drawdown | -36.6% | -58.6% | -33.0% |
| Years beating benchmark | 7 out of 10 | 6 out of 10 | Baseline |
| Year | Monthly Strategy | Weekly Strategy | Nasdaq-100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | +59.6% | +15.6% | +8.4% |
| 2016 | +99.6% | +69.7% | +5.9% |
| 2017 | +15.4% | +35.5% | +31.5% |
| 2018 | -17.3% | -5.0% | -1.0% |
| 2019 | +23.1% | +31.4% | +38.0% |
| 2020 (COVID crash) | +170.2% | +206.2% | +47.6% |
| 2021 | -3.9% | -22.0% | +26.6% |
| 2022 (Bear market) | -5.3% | -17.8% | -33.0% |
| 2023 | +66.0% | +33.8% | +53.8% |
| 2024 | -5.0% | +65.3% | +24.9% |
| Total (10 years) | +1,350.5% | +1,340.8% | +396% |
The most common investor fear is bad timing: "What if I start right before a crash?" We ran the numbers on every possible 5-year and 7-year investment window in our 10-year backtest.
In every possible 5-year period within our backtest — regardless of entry point — the Monthly Strategy produced a positive return. Worst outcome: +132.2%. Best: +652.1%. Average: +304.6%.
Every rolling 7-year window in our simulation outperformed a 2% savings account by a minimum of 236 percentage points. Worst 7-year return: +251.2%. Savings account: +14.9% over the same period.
In 2021, the Monthly Strategy returned -3.9% while the Nasdaq-100 returned +26.6%. This is not a surprise — and it is something we are transparent about upfront, not after the fact.
Momentum strategies have a known weakness: they underperform in low-volatility, broad market melt-up conditions. When every stock rises together and there is no differentiation between winners and losers, a momentum-based selection approach loses its edge. 2021 was precisely this type of market.
In contrast, the strategy protected capital in the 2022 bear market (Monthly: -5.3% vs Nasdaq-100: -33.0%) and delivered extraordinary returns during the COVID recovery in 2020 (+170.2% vs +47.6%). The strategy is designed for long-term compounding across different market regimes — not for winning every individual year.
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